As most people took a break from politics over the holiday weekend, we kept our eye on our poll data on the Eyesover Politics App, primarily because we were interested in the impact Trump’s speech from Mount Rushmore would have. Why would this particular event hold our attention during a holiday weekend? It’s because an interesting trend we have noticed in our data is that when President Trump speaks at events that are more Presidential, and less political, his sentiment and support numbers tend to increase.
For example, over the past six months, the three highest sentiment scores the President has earned online coincide with the following events:
- India visit
- Mount Rushmore Speech
- State of the Union Address
In other words, when he sticks the script, he generates more positive sentiment. While there was apparent disagreement with the content of his Mount Rushmore speech with opinions ranging from “Trump is Running an Openly Racist Campaign” to “Trump Punches Back at Totalitarian Left,” our numbers are clear that the speech boosted Trump’s sentiment 9% over the weekend.
So how did that impact our poll numbers? Significantly as it happens. What was a twelve-point Biden lead on Friday, was cut in half to a six-point lead by Sunday.
So was the Rushmore speech a turning point in the campaign? The answer is no. By Monday, the President was already losing all of the positive sentiment he generated on Saturday due to his tweets regarding NASCAR and pro sports teams. Currently, the Biden lead over Trump is back to ten points, and continuing to grow as the President’s sentiment continues to fall. It appears that Republicans themselves are recognizing the problem with squandering away political capital in such a manner.
We see the same pattern occurred in many of the battleground states as well.
While Trump is currently maintaining some of the ground he made up on Saturday, we can see Biden’s lead in our poll numbers increasing again, especially on the national poll.
While the President uses Twitter for much of his communication efforts, the numbers make it clear that he does so to his detriment since he garners more support when his messaging is less off the cuff.