Eyesover

Too little, too late?

Trump is showing signs of life in Florida, North Carolina, and Texas, but the Keystone State remains firmly in Biden’s control in our Eyesover numbers on Election Day eve.

Similar to the previous few weeks, as Trump makes gains in some states, he slips in others, leaving him with too few potential wins to tip the Electoral College scale in his favor. He has generated significant improvements in sentiment from Florida, North Carolina, and Texas over the past 24 hours, pulling even or surpassing Biden on sentiment for the first time this campaign. These improvements have resulted in Biden’s lead slipping to two points in all three states.

However, the same cannot be said for other critical states as Biden’s sentiment and support remains higher than Trump’s in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

On the day before the election, it appears that Trump is going to make some states interesting, but not enough of them to change the overall outcome.

Numbers for November 2, 2020

Arizona: D+8

Florida: D+2

Michigan: D+12

Minnesota: D+10

North Carolina: D+2

Nevada: D+6

Pennsylvania: D+6

Texas: D+2

Wisconsin: D+12

National: D+6

Eyesover real-time support scoring as of 4 PM ET, November 2, 2020.

Methodology here

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