As millions cast their ballots, we take one last look at our real-time data to see how voters are discussing the two candidates on the big day.

We see a decided upward swing in positive sentiment for Joe Biden this morning in every battleground state we have been monitoring. While Biden has always maintained an edge over Trump in daily sentiment, both candidates rarely registered a positive average sentiment. To see Biden well into positive territory across the board this morning is a strong indicator his supporters have a healthy level of enthusiasm for their candidate.

The same cannot be said for the President. His sentiment levels remain in negative territory, and the small increases he had in FL, NC, and TX over the past days have fallen back to previous levels. The declines have given Biden a significant sentiment edge in the battleground states and have led to increased support levels in the races that were within two points yesterday (FL, NC, TX now all at D+4)

Final Election Day Numbers

Arizona: D+8

Florida: D+4

Michigan: D+12

Minnesota: D+12

North Carolina: D+4

Nevada: D+8

Pennsylvania: D+10

Texas: D+4

Wisconsin: D+12

National: D+8

Eyesover real-time support scoring as of 10 AM ET, November 3, 2020.

Methodology here

The caveat with today’s data is that it incorporates the significant increase in media election day coverage and campaign get out the vote messaging, which tends to create more volatility and can skew the numbers from hour to hour. With that in mind, today’s data points to only one outcome; a decisive win for Joe Biden. With the battleground states critical to any chance for Trump, the sentiment swings indicate that those states are ready for a change, and Biden will win the majority, if not all, of the states we have been monitoring.