Just as we predicted, the President is enjoying a convention bounce that is now reported in several polls, just as we had observed before the convention had ended last weekend (thank you real-time data!).
Nationally, the President had closed the gap to six points, but that number has increased back to the 10-12 range observed before the conventions.
The same effect is observable at the state level as Trump was able to cut into Biden’s lead significantly, but Biden’s rebound at the state level has been less pronounced.
Arizona: D+4 (-2 from last month)
Florida: D+4 (no change)
Michigan: D+8 (-4)
Minnesota: D+10 (-4)
North Carolina: D+6 (-2)
Pennsylvania: D+8 (-2)
Texas: D+2 (no change)
Wisconsin: D+8 (-4)
National: D+10 (-2)
The next week will determine if the Trump gains are permanent or just a result of the media attention from last week. However, the reality remains that Biden’s lead is significant.
With the low number of undecided voters available to Trump, it will take something unusual over the next couple of months to drive the kind of opinion change the President will need to earn a second term.