While recent polls have shown a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals for the lead in the Canadian political landscape, at the same time, there has been some interesting movement among the NDP, Greens, and PPC as well.
When we look at the share of online mentions for each party during June, we see the majority are discussing the Liberals (61%), which is understandable due to the fact they are the governing party. The Conservatives follow at 28% while the New Democrats, People's Party, and Greens are 5%, 3%, and 3% respectively.
The fact that our tracking has found a sustained downward trend in sentiment over the past few months for the Liberals aligns with their recent fall in the polls. The trend continues to indicate that much of the online activity for the Liberals has been increased criticism of their recent actions.
But while the focus tends to be on the LPC and to a lesser extent, the CPC, we can't forget that there is an increasing likelihood that the NDP, Greens, and PPC will have a say in who will be able to form a government this fall.
When we look at the third, fourth, and fifth party mentions online, what catches the eye is the volume of PPC mentions. The party was discussed more than the Green Party in June and had just over 50% the number of mentions of the NDP. For a one-MP party that is less than a year old, there is considerable online traction.
Geographically, comparing where the mentions are coming from compared to provincial populations, the PPC mentions are over-weighted in Ontario, Alberta and BC despite the fact their sole MP, Maxime Bernier, is from Quebec.
The share of online mentions we show above aggregates daily mentions from the same account so it does not skew the one person, one vote concept, but we can also dive into the raw data to get an idea of how active people are when it comes to mentioning a party. To make sure our analysis does not get skewed by fake accounts or bots, we apply a thorough vetting to ensure accounts represent real individuals or organizations, and we ignore non-original comments such as retweets.
Of particular interest with the PPC is the fact that the average number of mentions from an account is 2.46. This level of activity is far higher than any of the other parties (CPC: 2.04, LPC: 1.89, Green: 1.72, NDP: 1.56) possibly indicating the PPC has a higher level of support intensity than other parties. The low number for the NDP could be an indication of a lack of enthusiasm within their base.
Something we will be watching over the next few months is to see how concentrated the PPC support is, and if they can turn their base's enthusiasm into a larger vote count in some ridings.