It’s been a week since our last Federal Election analysis and during that time there have been significant changes in the traditional polls. All polls show the momentum swinging to the Liberals as they pull ahead of the Conservatives while the New Democrats remain in a distant third place.
Our online analysis with the Eyesover Support Index last week produced trends that were very similar to traditional polls with the Conservatives and the Liberals in a close race. This week is no different with the Eyesover results indicating the Liberals have broken away from the Conservatives to some of their highest levels yet. For this week's analysis, we note that interest in the election is growing as we near October 19, as we are currently analyzing over 80,000 mentions per day.
We mentioned last week how multiple research studies have found that the frequency of online mentions is a reasonable proxy for overall support for a party in an election. That being said, our index weights frequency with sentiment to more accurately determine how online activity relates to vote intention.
For example, while the Conservatives generally have more people talking about them online (sitting governments always do), the average sentiment towards them is lower in relation to the other parties. We obviously have to take this into consideration when interpreting online data when using it as a proxy for vote intention.
What was interesting to note over the last week was the fact that as the sentiment towards the Liberals and the NDP remains constant (in the very positive range), the number of Liberal online mentions grew dramatically while the NDP remained at a constant level indicating online attention is turning towards the Liberals.
The rise in Liberal mentions coupled with a consistently high sentiment score is the combination that has put them ahead of the Conservatives on our Support Index this week – we’ll continue to watch to see if this trend continues as we approach election day.