Something interesting we’ve seen over the past month is the online volume trends of the top candidates in the Democrat Presidential Primary. We will often see large daily variations in volume, but the top tier of candidates has generally been maintaining consistent average volumes over weekly or monthly periods.
The consistency we normally witness is why it is interesting to see the volume trend of discussions regarding Joe Biden throughout July. Biden’s average volume during the past two weeks of the month dropped 30% from his average volume during the first two weeks. In comparison, Warren and Harris saw their volumes decrease a more reasonable 11% and 15% respectively, while Sanders saw a huge increase of 49%, although it came with the largest decrease in sentiment, primarily due to the negative comments surrounding his campaign’s minimum wage issues.
The lack of online discussion about Biden starts with a lack of reasons to discuss him, and this could be due to the other candidates pursuing the media’s attention more aggressively, or simply a decision by his team, such as more debate prep over the past two weeks. Whether it is coincidental or by design, the numbers indicate his campaign team has been comfortable allowing others to take the spotlight in recent media cycles. Whether this continues post-debate is a trend we will be looking for in our online data in the days ahead.