March was as eventful as ever for the President with more high-profile hirings and firings, continued fallout from Russian political interference, and increased attention on extra-marital affairs allegations. The impact of these events was clearly evident in how the public viewed the President throughout the month.
While Trump's approval rating in March tended to stay within a range of 45 to 50 percent, the public were viewing Trump more negatively through the period of March 14 - 19 with his approval rating reaching a monthly low of 39%. The public's discussions during this period focused on the firing of former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the hiring of Larry Kudlow as Trump's top economic aide, and Russian sanctions. The last time the President's approval rating reached such a low level was in the aftermath of the February 14th school shootings in Florida.
Trump's approval rating bounced back to its normal range over the last 10 days of the month, despite the period including heightened attention to multiple allegations of extramarital affairs and more changes in various roles within government.
As the numbers from last night’s Special Senate Election in Alabama rolled in, things were playing out exactly how Eyesover Technologies had predicted they would as Democrat Doug Jones beat Republican Roy Moore.
Heading into the vote counting Tuesday night, Eyesover projected Jones had a 52-48 advantage over Moore. The final results were Jones at 49.9%, Moore at 48.4% and 1.7% write-ins.
Eyesover uses online data to provide public opinion to their clients including their Real-Time Polling that correctly predicted the Jones victory Tuesday night. “We understand that the communications landscape is undergoing a massive shift with people cutting the cord and increasingly using online devices for their everyday communication needs. Because of this, the way we identify, measure, and act on public opinion has to change as well. As the public increasingly expresses their views online, that data can be used to understand public support for products, policies, and in last night’s case, political candidates” stated Eyesover CEO Craig Leonard.
The New Brunswick, Canada based company has recently made inroads into the US market with their software and expect their success in predicting the Alabama result will accelerate that growth. “You could not ask for a more difficult election to predict as demonstrated by the fact most polls were predicting a Moore victory. But when you have access to over 35,000 individuals expressing their opinions as we did on Tuesday, it makes it possible to accurately predict what is going to happen” Leonard said.
The Eyesover platform uses artificial intelligence to find online discussions pertaining to their customer’s area of interest. The data collected by the platform allows Eyesover to tell their customers what issues are trending, public opinion, and helps target advertising towards the most receptive audiences for the customer’s messages.
Doug Jones is heading into tomorrow's Senate Election in Alabama with a small but growing lead over Roy Moore. After being tied at the end of last week, Jones has started to add support over the past couple of days to move ahead 54-46.
Since Eyesover uses online data for its polling, determining the location of a specific account is not always possible if the account owner chooses not to publish their location. However, Eyesover can segment the individuals discussing the Alabama election online into groups of people who are from Alabama and those who have no confirmed location (they may be from Alabama or any other location).
The variance in support levels between these two groups is interesting as the Alabama group shows the 54-46 lead for Jones while the data from the Unconfirmed Location (UL) group shows a closer race at 51-49 for Jones.
When we dive down into the issues these groups are discussing in relation to the election, the Alabama group's top issue is Healthcare while the UL group's top issue is Human Rights/Women's Issues.
The strong lead Doug Jones held in the Alabama Senate race last week is all but gone as Roy Moore's support has rebounded driving Jones' lead down to 4 points.
As a result of Jones' lead last week, it appears that Moore supporters have become more engaged as there has been an increase in the number of individuals talking negatively about Jones online, while discussions about Moore have become more positive.
While 90% of last week's discussions pertaining to the race were about Moore, we now see a 60-40 split between Moore and Jones. The issue for Jones is his sentiment scores have fallen from an overall positive to an overall negative in a relatively short period of time.
Today's Eyesover Support Index indicates that Alabama Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore has been unable to stop the erosion of his support over the past week and now trails Democratic candidate Doug Jones by 12 points.
Over the past week there has been 10x more online discussion pertaining to Moore than Jones, but the overwhelming majority of those discussions have been marked with very negative sentiment towards Moore, the cause of his deteriorating support.
Jones has been in the background while Moore has been the focus of the media over the past week, but he will clearly be attracting more attention from all sides now that the race is competitive. With his online mentions increasing over the past two days, we'll be watching to see how it will affect his sentiment and support scores.
As we often post the results from our political Real-Time Polling on our site, we thought a couple of posts discussing the current challenges traditional pollsters face and how Eyesover can help solve some of those problems would be in order.
Traditional pollsters face challenges on multiple levels these days. It has always been no easy task to deliver accurate, up-to-date information on the opinions of the public, but in today’s changing society, it has become even more difficult.
Although there have been technological advancements in the industry with automated phone calling, which greatly reduced the cost of calling voters across the country, the reality is that 2016 marked the first year where more than 50% of households in the US did not own a landline. Of course, cell phones are increasingly being targeted by the industry, but reaching the owners of these devices poses a significant challenge as well due to the wide range of rapidly improving call-blocking apps available.
Even worse for polling companies, the households that still have landlines are increasingly skewing towards those in older age groups. More than seven in ten households under the age of 35 are now cellphone-only. These issues create significant and costly problems in creating a sample that accurately reflects the population, a necessity for accurate polling.
Considering these challenges, credit must be given to polling companies that, in-spite-of these adverse conditions, still manage to produce accurate and insightful polls!
But as the landscape of telecommunications changes, we believe polling derived from other sources of information will play a growing role in the industry and we’ll explain why in our next post.
As political campaigns are increasingly won and lost online, tools that allow campaigns to harness online information have quickly moved from the “nice to have” category of campaign needs to become a critical requirement.
Just as a seller of products or services needs to capture customer feedback, track performance, and advertise, political campaigns need to understand their customer’s opinion (issues management), know how they are performing in relation to their competition (polling), and be able to reach out to the voter/customer in an effort to help sell the candidate (advertising).
The Eyesover system is designed to provide these tools to a campaign in one comprehensive platform and in particular, alert customers about trends they are not aware of using artificial intelligence to uncover potential emerging issues.
Using Eyesover trend discovery software, campaigns can capture unlimited discussions pertaining to the issues that are driving an election. Our unique technology provides up to the minute polling results based on the opinions of thousands of potential voters. We also give campaigns the ability to reach out to voters one on one, or through micro-targeted online ads based on voter opinions on specific issues.
Whether a campaign is local or national, the Eyesover platform provides the information that will ultimately determine if a campaign wins or loses. Visit our site to learn more about how we can help you win.
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