Over the past three days in the Ontario election, two topics have been garnering significant discussion online – Doug Ford’s cheap beer promise and Kathleen Wynne’s apology/no apology.
Both topics represent tactics that the PCs and Liberals feel are appropriate given their current situations in the polls. Doug Ford’s PCs have witnessed a significant lead evaporate as they find themselves statistically tied with the NDP. Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals, finding themselves in a distant third place, attempted to take back the spotlight by acknowledging the lack of Wynne’s popularity while trying to move the focus to what they view as their accomplishments.
So how have the voters reacted?
Doug Ford’s promise for cheap beer has gone over very well. In online discussions since Friday, May 25th, the 1780 people who mentioned Ford’s “Buck a Beer” plan were discussing it positively. Individuals who didn’t mention a political party in their discussions were the most positive while those that referred to the Liberals in conjunction with the beer proposal expressed the lowest sentiment, but it was still in the neutral range. In other words, the promise is playing very well for the PCs.
Online commentators were not as accepting of Kathleen Wynne’s “sorry, not sorry” line from Sunday’s debate. Of the 1250 people who have referred to the phrase over the past 24 hours, only those who did not name a political party were neutral in their comments. The most negative comments were from those that mentioned Wynne or the Liberal party in their online discussions indicating that the attempt to refocus the conversation on accomplishments fell flat, and people are using the phrase as another way to express their displeasure with the Premier’s performance.
The Liberals still gained the most from last night’s debate overall as they modestly increased their share of voter support by two points in our public opinion tracking. While the PCs held steady, the NDP pulled back from their gains over the last week, and we currently see the race split 37-34-24-5 (PC-NDP-Lib-Green) as of 5 pm on Monday the 28th.
Eyesover Technologies’ analysis of the Ontario Provincial Election consists of continuously measuring mentions of each candidate and relevant issues from a daily average of approximately 20,000 comments from Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Reddit, and translating those mentions into voter support with our proprietary algorithms and would not be considered an election survey based on recognized statistical methods.
We've been watching some of the Senate races lately, and if the trends we're seeing continue, it will be an interesting summer and fall for a number of campaigns.
Today we're looking at Texas and what people are discussing when they talk about the race between Republican incumbent Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke.
Because he will be playing a significant role in any race this year, we start by looking at the public opinion of President Trump. Recent online discussions from Texas mentioning the President have a neutral sentiment indicating that he isn't impacting the race for either candidate to any great extent.
The most discussed issues for both Cruz and O'Rourke over the last month have been gun control, immigration, and taxation. The sentiment expressed on increased gun control was the most intense, with it being a strong negative among Cruz supporters and a positive among those leaning O'Rourke.
Overall, Cruz is maintaining a 54-46 lead in support among those Texans discussing the race online, but O'Rourke has shown strength over the past month indicating this will be a race that could hold some surprises over the next few months.
Eyesover Technologies’ analysis of the Texas Senate race consists of continuously measuring mentions of each candidate and relevant issues from a daily average of approximately 10,000 comments from Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Reddit, and translating those mentions into voter intention with our proprietary algorithms.