If go you back a few pages on this website, you will find a quote from us that states "Online communications has replaced the town hall. Today, when people want to discuss a social issue to express their concerns or support, they take to their devices and put it out there for all to see." So we were obviously in full agreement with this excellent article by Mike Colledge, President of Ipsos Public Affairs in Canada via globalnews.ca where he says:
In the end, government must and will continue to consult on a wide variety of large and small issues and actions. They will need to use multiple methods to ensure they get as many views as possible but the lesson in this data is that they should be looking at Tweets, Facebook and Instagram posts as well because somewhere between the selfies and the pictures of this morning’s omelet are some unfiltered views of Canadians expressing their concerns, desires and expectations of their governments.
The fact that this is backed up with Ipsos polling data makes it clear that people are forgoing the town hall for the online community:
In the spirit of consultation we at Ipsos asked Canadians what is the most effective to ensure that the views of Canadians are taken into consideration during the development of government policies and programs. Perhaps surprisingly given the decline (until 2015) in voting, voting in an election (52 per cent very effective) or a referendum (43 per cent very effective) are considered the most effective ways to give Canadians a voice. Some might note that the low 52 per cent very effective rating for voting in elections may indeed be the reason for the decline in voting.
The lesson for politicians? People are talking. Be a good listener.
Another Tuesday, another round of critical primaries to look at. So let's get right to it.
On the Republican side, the only question is if anyone will catch Trump. He leads our online support index in all five states tonight, all by double digits. The only potential issue for him will be late movements. In North Carolina, Missouri, and Illinois, Trump lost ground over the last 24 hours and Ted Cruz has been the beneficiary of those drops in support online. In Florida, Rubio has increased his numbers late, but still trails Trump by 20 points. However, in this primary season we have already witnessed 20+ point lead evaporate on voting day so these movements might be significant.
Tonight's Primaries are lining up to be interesting for both parties but for different reasons.
On the Democratic side, Clinton should win both Michigan and Mississippi, which would reduce the amount of runway Sanders has left in his campaign.
On the Republican side, it does appear that while Trump still looks strong overall, there might be cracks in the armor since he goes into two races tonight looking up at the leader.
We project Clinton will win both races handily as she goes into tonight with an 18 point advantage in Michigan and a 28 point lead in Mississippi.
The Republicans have a couple of intriguing races ahead of them. While we see Trump doing well in Michigan and the Hawaii caucus (although our sample size in Hawaii is very small...), Mississippi sees Cruz slightly ahead of Trump, a lead that was established just over the last two days after Trump had a significant lead for weeks. A similar scenario has played out in Idaho, where it is a true three way race with Cruz leading Rubio and Trump by the slimmest of margins.
Also of note is Kasich's second place position in Michigan. Taking a quick peak at Ohio, we have Kasich ahead of Trump 40-39 so it seems that the Governor is building to a strong Ohio Primary which could certainly change the overall dynamic of the race.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has finished strong on Super Tuesday hanging onto her leads and building strength in some of the closer races
The south continues to look good for Clinton and she has gained strength in Virginia while turning both Minnesota and Oklahoma into dead heats.
Sanders has strength in Massachusetts, Colorado and his home state of Vermont. He will need to win these states and have good finishes in Minnesota and Oklahoma to hold off Clinton's momentum.
We included our Texas numbers but with an caveat since at this time, our system is bilingual in English and French only. With the significant Hispanic population in Texas, it is likely we did not pick up online activity in Spanish, a factor that could cause the support index to skew toward English only voters.
So that is Super Tuesday for us at Eyesover. Enjoy the night!
Only a few more minutes until the first polls close so we thought we'd update our numbers before we watch the results tonight.
In summary, Super Tuesday could prove to be much more interesting than we had originally thought.
Late moves in our online support index show some races tightening up and Donald Trump losing his lead in three states.
Ted Cruz is coming on strong in Arkansas and Oklahoma, while building his lead in Texas. Marco Rubio has also seen his support increase in Arkansas and Oklahoma in addition to jumping ahead of Trump in the Virginia race. John Kasich is in on the act as well as he has jumped into second place in Vermont.
Trump still leads in most states, and by a significant margin in most. Yet the numbers indicate that enough delegates will be earned by Cruz and Rubio to keep the race going for a while yet.