The Senate race in Missouri has been extremely close for some time now, and our latest numbers show no sign of this changing anytime soon. This race has had numerous lead changes for the past few months and is definitely looking like a true toss-up.
While this race has often been described in the media as a toss-up, we're not seeing any evidence of a close race with Joe Manchin having established a strong sustained lead over Patrick Morrisey for the past month.
Similar to West Virginia, Montana has been labelled as a toss-up by a number of media outlets. However, we find that Democratic Senator Jon Tester has a wide lead over Republican Matt Rosendale.
As we break down the data to look at the issues that matter within the three states, there is a big difference between the discussions are from within the state and those that are not.
Immigration is currently the most discussed topic in all three states, yet the most discussed issue about Montana from those outside the state was Trump's recent #metoo comments from a Montana rally. Outside of West Virginia, Joe Manchin's vote on the Supreme Court nominee is being widely discussed, but is not even a top five issue from within the state.
In all cases, our analysis of the above electoral races consists of continuously measuring mentions of each candidate and relevant issues from a daily average of approximately 5000 individual accounts from Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Reddit, and translating those mentions into voter support with our proprietary algorithms.