No news has been good news for Joe Biden as he remains firmly in control of the race for the White House. While the President has had moments in our real-time poll numbers where he closes the national gap to single digits, Biden’s lead invariably returns to the current low double digits just as it is today at +12.
There has been little change at the state level with Biden maintaining leads in the battleground states. Trump has reduced Biden’s lead in Texas but remains behind by a substantial amount in critical states such as Pennsylvania.
This week’s Democratic convention is already moving our numbers further towards Biden. Still, as is always the case with conventions, those changes are usually temporary, and we expect the reverse trend when the Republicans hold their convention next week.
Despite the significant leads Biden holds, they have been exceptionally stable over the past month, indicating that it will likely take some significant events to move the public’s opinion enough to make this a horse race.
Arizona: D+6 (-2 from last month)
Florida: D+4 (-2)
Michigan: D+12 (+6)
Minnesota: D+14 (+2)
North Carolina: D+8 (+2)
Pennsylvania: D+10 (-2)
Texas: D+2 (-2)
Wisconsin: D+12 (-2)
National: D+12 (no change)