Days away from November 3 and the surge Donald Trump needs to catch Joe Biden has failed to materialize at this point. We have recorded some significant changes in Biden’s leads at the state level, both positive and negative, but the bad news for Trump is that the changes that reduce Biden’s advantage are generally in states where the lead appears insurmountable (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin) while some of the states where Biden is increasing his lead, are the ones where he is/was competitive (Texas).

Florida and North Carolina standout as the two states where Trump may have some momentum as Biden’s lead is down to two and four points, respectively, but the critical state of Pennsylvania is looking increasingly out of reach for the President.

Numbers for October 29, 2020 (change from October 21)

Arizona: D+6 (nc)

Florida: D+2 (-4)

Michigan: D+8 (-4)

Minnesota: D+8 (-6)

North Carolina: D+4 (-6)

Pennsylvania: D+10 (+2)

Texas: D+6 (+6)

Wisconsin: D+8 (-2)

National: D+6 (-2)

For more details on the issue trends and news surrounding each of the races, check out the state products we have available at m.eyesover.com.