With less than two weeks left to go to Election Day, the surge that President Trump needs to catch Joe Biden has yet to happen, and given the current trends in this week’s Eyesover numbers, it doesn’t look like it will.
While Trump has gained ground in some states, it has occurred in states that he was widely expected to win (TX), or in states where Biden’s lead is so large, it still leaves him far behind (PA). That, combined with losing ground in other states, does not make for a strong case for a likely comeback
Numbers for October 21, 2020 (change from October 7)
Arizona: D+6 (+2)
Florida: D+6 (NC)
Michigan: D+12 (+2)
Minnesota: D+14 (-2)
North Carolina: D+10 (+2)
Pennsylvania: D+8 (-4)
Texas: Tie (-4)
Wisconsin: D+10 (+2)
National: D+8 (+2)
The reality of the numbers is that none of these races is all that close except Texas. We’ve seen shifts over the past few months that have brought states such as Arizona, Florida, and even North Carolina down to a two-point lead for Biden, but in each case, the moving average for those same months has remained between four to eight points.
We will see over the next two weeks if the President can pull off what would be, at this point, an astounding comeback. Of course, the more likely scenario is that the Eyesover numbers, along with virtually all polls, accurately represent public sentiment and the majority of Americans are ready for a new President.
